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    中國自動化的發展

    文章出處:   責任編輯:   發布時間:2016-10-14 10:32:00    點擊數:-   【

    2012年以后,中國經濟運行步入“新常態”,中國自動化市場也隨之回歸平穩,保持小幅平穩增長態勢。2015年,在全球需求萎靡、能源價格低迷的市場背景下,中國經濟步入結構轉型陣痛期,出口明顯萎縮、投資增速大幅下滑、僅消費需求相對穩定,GDP破7意味著,在去產能、去庫存的同時市場傳統驅動力全面衰減,而結構調整、轉型升級帶動的新市場需求尚未形成規模。2015年的中國自動化市場再次迎來深度調整,增速回落12個百分點,市場規模萎縮8.1%,市場規模也回落至1390億元。

    從產品來看,萎縮幅度較大的自動化產品中,高壓變頻器、過程安全、軟起、物液位儀表、控制閥不僅2015年的萎縮幅度接近20%,過去3年的年均復合增速也都出現明顯萎縮。體量較大的自動化產品中,低壓變頻器、PLC、CNC、DCS、壓力、物液位儀表、流量儀表等產品均出現明顯萎縮。GMC一反前兩年10%以上的市場增速,也出現小幅萎縮。

    2016-2021年中國自動化系統集成產業運行態勢及投資戰略研究報告顯示,從行業來看,過去2年OEM市場的增速一直高于項目型市場的增速。風電行業過去2年一直保持20%以上的市場增速是OEM行業表現相對較好的最主要拉動因素。此外,國家經濟轉型促進產業結構調整,重化工、冶金、建材等傳統產能過剩行業的項目投資逐步減少,導致項目型市場對自動化產品的需求萎縮幅度進一步加大。2015年的OEM市場中,風電、電子制造設備、交通運輸工具、醫療設備等國家政策導向和消費相關的行業依然保持了較好的市場增速。而傳統的、產能過剩行業需求則出現較大幅度的萎縮,機床、紡織機械、橡膠機械都是典型代表。2015年的項目型市則整體表現慘淡,細分行業來看,除市政、公共設施、汽車、電力外,大部分行業投資大幅下滑,項目明顯減少,對自動化產品的需求出現較大幅度的萎縮。

    隨著“供給側改革”、“一帶一路”、“智能制造”等國家政策的強化、深入和調整,對未來中國自動化市場持謹慎樂觀態度,中長期來看,未來市場仍將保持小幅增長的新常態態勢;短期來看,2016年的市場將出現小幅萎縮,市場狀況仍不容樂觀。筆者認為,未來中國自動化市場將以2%左右的年均復合增長率保持低速增長。

    細分來看,未來市場的“陽春”主要體現在“供給側改革”帶動制造業升級改造、培育新產業、農業等新的市場機會、新的市場需求?!耙粠б宦贰眲t有力的推動有力地推動高鐵/鐵路/公路、工業/產業園區、油氣管線/油氣儲備、電力裝備/電力工程、倉儲物流、海洋工程裝備/高端船舶等領域的項目建設和裝備制造。智能制造在10大領域的突破發展,將帶動數控類、機器人類、軟件類、信息類、分析儀表類、視覺檢測類、信息安全類自動化產品和系統的發展。

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